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The Phoenix Suns have a full week off to rest, recuperate and prepare for another deep playoff run. With Game 1 set for Sunday at the Footprint Center, the only thing that’s left to be determined is who they’ll actually be playing.
With the NBA’s play-in tournament unfolding this week, there are four possible opponents the Suns could face in their first-round matchup. As the 1-seed with a 64-18 record, Phoenix is actually at somewhat of a disadvantage, having to wait until the final play-in game on Friday to find out who their opponent is.
Fortunately, coach Monty Williams doesn’t see it as much of an issue.
“It’s not as terrible as you think,” he said. “We have coaches assigned to certain teams. It’d be difficult if the teams you were facing were all under the same coaches umbrella, but that hasn’t happened with us, and even if it was, we’d just delegate to another coach. But everybody has their teams, and we’re studying all the time.”
Tuesday’s first play-in game between the seventh-place Minnesota Timberwolves and eighth-place LA Clippers will eliminate one potential Suns opponent, with the winner securing the 7-seed. The winner of the game between the ninth-place New Orleans Pelicans and 10th-place San Antonio Spurs will then face the loser of the 7-8 matchup, with the winner of that game earning the right to face the Suns.
In the interest of being thorough, let’s take a quick look at what to expect from each potential matchup.
The Timberwolves are the NBA’s top offense since the start of the calendar year, and although they aren’t defensive stalwarts, Chris Finch has them looking respectable on that end at least.
This series would be a track meet. The Wolves play at the league’s fastest pace, and the Suns aren’t far behind, ranking eighth. Minnesota likes to be aggressive on defense, accounting for the third-most steals and blocks, and they’re good at turning those events into offense, leading the NBA in points off turnovers (19.8 per game) and ranking fourth in fast-break points (15.2 per game).
Aside from having one of the game’s best bigs in Karl-Anthony Towns and a budding young bulldozer of a scorer in Anthony Edwards, Minnesota excels in a few problem areas for Phoenix. The Wolves crash the offensive glass hard, ranking seventh in offensive rebounding percentage and averaging the fifth-most second-chance points (14.8 per game).
They’re a top-10 team in free-throw rate, and they also lead the league in 3-point attempts, ranking a respectable 12th in 3-point percentage. On the rare 18 occasions where the Suns lost this season, it often coincided with their opponent simply catching fire from downtown.
However, as much as the Timberwolves like to get up and down, they’re also prone to mistakes. They’re 21st in turnovers, give up the fifth-most fast-break points to opponents. They’re even worse than Phoenix about keeping opponents off the foul line, committing the second-most fouls per game and giving up the most free-throw attempts on a nightly basis.
And as much as they love crashing the boards on offense, they’re not nearly as disciplined on the other end, ranking 28th in defensive rebounding percentage and giving up the sixth-most second-chance points in the NBA — again worse than the Suns. Their own offensive rebounding often buoys the offense too, since Minnesota ranks 22nd in field-goal percentage thanks to all the 3s they launch.
X-factor: Turnovers and tempo
The Suns won all three regular-season matchups against this team in a variety of ways, playing through one slugfest, one hot-shooting night and one slap in the face after a certain KAT made the mistake of poking a bear.
Even so, Phoenix would want to control the tempo of this series, namely by avoiding coughing up the ball to a Wolves squad that thrived on forcing the second-most turnovers in the league.
The Suns had the NBA’s third-best turnover percentage, per Cleaning the Glass, so it’ll be on Chris Paul, Devin Booker and the rest of the guard rotation to stay composed in the face of an irritant like Patrick Beverley and the underrated Jarred Vanderbilt.
Ayton is one of the best options to defend Towns and seems to take this matchup personally, so if the Suns eliminate Minnesota’s points off turnovers, fast-break points and keep them off the offensive glass, the Wolves’ own mistakes and youth will come to the forefront.
Prediction: Suns in 5
The Clippers are seemingly the most formidable opponent of this bunch. The Suns split this season series 2-2, but Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton didn’t play in the losses. Chris Paul and Jae Crowder sat out in one of those losses, and Paul George missed all but the last matchup, so there isn’t a ton to go on here.
While the Clippers are currently missing Kawhi Leonard as he continues his ACL rehab, a Kawhi-less version of this team took Phoenix to six games in last year’s Western Conference Finals. This year’s group is still lethal from 3-point range, shooting the NBA’s third-best percentage. They have a ton of positionally versatile wings to throw out there, and Tyronn Lue is one of the league’s best coaches at in-game and mid-series adjustments.
However, as much as George has been a Suns killer in recent years and Norman Powell has looked dangerous since returning from injury, this team has too many moving parts to be a significant threat. PG has only been back for five games, and while the highs have been high (like his 34 points on 10-of-20 shooting in his first game back), the lows have been just as low (he shot less than 37 percent from the floor in three of those games).
Powell has been lights out in his two games back, including a 24-point performance in 23 minutes against the Suns, but players coming off injuries typically struggle to maintain a high level of play upon returning.
As our guest Shane Young pointed out on the PHNX Suns Podcast, this team rolled out a whopping 532 different lineups this season:
Throw in that cacophony of moving parts and new faces, and this group — resilient and well-coached as ever — just doesn’t have the continuity to seriously challenge a Suns juggernaut.
The Clippers are 25th in offensive rating and won’t be able to hurt Phoenix where they struggle — on the offensive boards and in keeping opponents off the free-throw line. LA is only 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, as well as dead-last in both second-chance points and free-throw rate.
X-factor: Deandre Ayton vs. all-wing lineups
It’s tempting to go with “Kawhi Leonard’s health,” which would loom over this series yet again, but did you see the difference in the size of each of his legs? It’s hard to foresee him returning for a playoff series against the NBA’s No. 1 team without substantial practices, let alone regular-season reps.
So instead, Ayton is the X-factor. Last year, the Clippers played Rudy Gobert off the court with small-ball in their series against the Utah Jazz. They failed to do that to Ayton. LA has even more wings to run out there between George, Powell, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Terrance Mann, Marcus Morris, Luke Kennard, Rodney Hood and Amir Coffey, but DA has been better than ever at punishing mismatches with his devastating jump hook.
If Ayton outplays Ivica Zubac, and Lue’s counter of going with all-wing lineups doesn’t work either, the Suns should make short work of this matchup.
Prediction: Suns in 5
It’ll take two straight wins to see the Pelicans or the Spurs in the 8-spot, but both teams have played better basketball lately. In New Orleans’ case, following a daunting 1-12 start, former Suns assistant Willie Green helped right the ship. The Pelicans are 35-34 since then, including 14-14 with a +3.4 point differential and top-10 Net Rating since CJ McCollum arrived.
Phoenix won the season series 3-1, but McCollum only played in the latter two matchups. Another under-the-radar Suns killer, CJ has looked terrific in NOLA, averaging what would be a career-high 24.3 points, 5.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds a night on .493/.394/.667 shooting splits. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t make a surprise return, the Pels can challenge Phoenix in a few problem areas.
Much like Minnesota, New Orleans hits the offensive boards hard, ranking fourth in rebounding percentage on that end and third in second-chance points (15.1 per game). Also like Minnesota, they turn defensive opportunities (seventh in steals) into buckets (ninth in points off turnovers and sixth in fast-break points).
Unlike Minnesota, however, the Pelicans are elite on the boards on both ends, ranking third in defensive rebounding percentage. They’re also diligent with their transition defense, limiting opponents to the fourth-fewest fast-break points. Between their size and aggression on the boards, they can hurt Phoenix at the foul line, where they rank sixth in free-throw rate.
With that being said, the Pelicans may not have the shooting to challenge Phoenix’s top-notch defense. They’re 23rd in field-goal percentage, 27th in 3-point percentage and take the seventh-fewest 3s per game. Unless the Pels average 30 free throws per game, it’ll be hard to overcome the likely discrepancy in firepower here, even with Brandon Ingram returning from his hamstring injury.
X-factor: Rebounding
Willie Green’s familiarity with Phoenix’s system helps, but aside from McCollum having the series of his life against a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Mikal Bridges, the only way the Suns can beat themselves is if they allow New Orleans’ elite rebounding to create a heap of second-chance opportunities.
The Pelicans have plenty of size, brute strength and rebounding acumen between Jonas Valanciunas, Willy Hernangomez, Jaxson Hayes, and Larry Nance Jr. Even wings like Herbert Jones and Josh Hart hit the glass hard, so it’ll take a collective team effort to help Ayton close out defensive stops when New Orleans starts clanking 3s.
Prediction: Suns in 5
It’s okay to finally look under the bed, Suns fans; this Gregg Popovich team isn’t as scary anymore.
To be fair, the Spurs closed their season on an 8-5 spurt to pass the Los Angeles Lakers for the final play-in spot. Despite being 14 games below .500, they actually have a positive point differential, which means they rarely get blown out. As our guest Tom Petrini pointed out on Tuesday morning’s PHNX Suns pod, they just recorded the highest assist-to-turnover ratio (2.19) in NBA history.
As one would expect from any Pop team, the Spurs are fundamentally sound. They don’t give up a lot of turnovers, which explains their top-10 marks in opponent points off turnovers and fast-break points. They rarely commit fouls and are eighth in both offensive rebounding percentage and second-chance points.
Although the Suns swept the Spurs in the regular season, every single one of those games was close until Phoenix put them away late. Whether it was Devin Booker’s 48-point outing in mid-January, Ish Wainright spurring (pun intended) the comeback as a small-ball 5 a few weeks later or Chris Paul pulling away in crunch-time, San Antonio proved it executes well enough to make any team earn it.
And therein lies the advantage: The Suns have been here before and know how to dominate crunch-time. The Spurs, a significantly younger and more inexperienced group, do not. As much as they hang around and rarely get blown out, their 15-24 record in crunch-time pales in comparison to Phoenix’s league-best 33-9 mark. The same goes for the Spurs’ -12.3 Net Rating (27th) in the clutch, compared to the Suns’ +33.4 Net Rating (first).
San Antonio is dead-last in free-throw rate and 25th in 3-point attempts, hitting them at only a 35.2 percent clip. Per NBA.com, the Spurs are also the NBA’s second-worst team at defending the midrange, where the Suns absolutely thrive:
X-factor: Points in the paint
The one area where the Spurs can keep it interesting is inside the paint. San Antonio averages the second-most points in the paint per game (53.3), while the Suns are just behind them with the fourth-most (49.8 per game).
However, the Spurs also give up a ton of points in the paint, despite holding opponents to the third-best field-goal percentage at the rim. San Antonio surrenders 50.2 points in the paint on a nightly basis, which ranks 26th. The Suns are much better in that respect, giving up only 45.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth.
Put it all together and finally, the Spurs may be the Suns’ easiest playoff opponent in the field.
Prediction:
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