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The Phoenix Suns enter the 2023 NBA Playoffs with considerable talent, but undeniable question marks. Their 45-37 record is misleading because of all the time key players have missed from injury, as well as the fact that they added Kevin Durant late in the season.
However, even with KD, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton comprising 80 percent of their starting lineup, the Suns’ first playoff run together won’t be easy. The Western Conference is wide open, but each opponent presents unique challenges that could put some of Phoenix’s weaknesses on full display.
The Suns are almost universally favored in their first-round matchup against the LA Clippers, but as this organization learned last year, nothing is guaranteed come playoff time. To that end, here’s a look at the five biggest playoff concerns for Phoenix.
Top to bottom, the Suns have the most stacked starting five in the Western Conference. One could even make the case they have the best four-man core of any NBA team. The reason they aren’t the unanimous pick to win the West is because they’ve only had eight games under their belts with Durant.
“Yeah, chemistry matters,” Durant conceded. “Being on the same page with your team matters. In a perfect world, I were [able] to play more than eight games with this team. But I just gotta rest on me playing 1,000 games in the NBA. And I’ll figure it out.”
So far, the Suns have yet to lose a game with KD in the lineup. They’re a perfect 8-0, boasting a 117.7 offensive rating with him on the floor that would’ve ranked second overall this season and a 107.0 defensive rating that would’ve led the league.
“Obviously we haven’t had a lot of games together, but the games we had together, I think that we looked pretty good,” Josh Okogie said. “I feel like we looked like we were on the same page.”
However, the quality of competition has to be factored into the equation there. In those eight games, the Suns beat:
That’s not exactly a murderer’s row! Even so, the ability for Durant to instantly assimilate hasn’t been lost on anyone. Part of it is due to his shared approach with Booker, Paul and the rest of the group.
“We’re just hoopers,” Booker said. “We knew each other’s games before he got here, we always had a high respect for each other. And not just us, the whole team has a respect for him and understands what he’s capable of. He just knows how to play the game. He’s efficient in what he does, he rebounds at a high level, blocks shots at a high level, and you can plug that into any system.”
Fortunately, the Suns have been able to get in some crunch-time reps and build some of that cohesion — a process simplified by Durant being one of the NBA’s easiest plug-and-play fits.
“Chemistry is important, but honestly, with a guy like him, it’s really not super difficult.”
Landry Shamet on the Suns only having 8 games with Kevin Durant heading into the playoffs: pic.twitter.com/peQiyLvcdE
— Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) April 13, 2023
Coach Monty Williams noted Durant has proven himself as a seamless fit with every team he’s been on, but having guys like Booker and CP3 has allowed him to play off the ball more. That’s enabled Phoenix to incorporate him into their offense while still giving him pockets to shine as the brilliant iso scorer that he is.
“The willingness to understand what we do and implement it without losing who he is as a player, I think it helps him,” Williams said. “I mean, the easy answer is he’s just a really good basketball player. He’s one of the best ones I’ve ever been around. And he’s smart, and so they figure out ways to fit in on both ends of the floor.”
Durant has played with Shamet and Cam Payne in the past, as well as Booker on Team USA. Being in the league as long as he has, most guys are already familiar with his game and vice-versa. That’s helped streamline the feeling-out process, even though there’s still room to grow.
Terrence Ross, for example, said it’s all about finding the balance between keeping the rhythm flowing when Durant’s out there, versus being assertive when the Suns need him to come off the bench and get buckets.
“Playing with Kevin’s easy: I mean, just give him the ball,” Ross laughed. “You give him the ball, you give him space. And I think that’s another thing that our coach is trying to get us to do a good job of understanding is, when he does get the ball, and there’s times where he might go into an iso, it’s, ‘How can we give him space without having our man help too much on him or attack him or send two toward him?’”
The Suns aren’t reinventing the way they play or changing everything to incorporate a new, ball-dominant player. If anything, Durant slots into their established sets perfectly, while also providing a bail-out option when they simply need a basket.
Special thanks to @YoungNBA and @LucasJHann for hopping on today's @PHNX_Suns pod! Lots of good stuff on the Clippers side of the matchup:https://t.co/ewVh6HiOLI pic.twitter.com/XsvS0UlDpu
— Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) April 14, 2023
So despite not having a ton of time with KD himself on the floor, Williams is hopeful Phoenix has learned enough about the other guys to reintegrate him quickly. Starting Torrey Craig, giving Ish Wainright a different role this year, adding Ross and T.J. Warren, getting extended looks at Josh Okogie and Jock Landale — all of the last few months of experimentation came with a deeper understanding of what the role players can and can’t do.
“I think in those situations, you learn a ton,” Williams said, “But outside of that, comparing this year to last year, it’s a bit of a different situation. I felt like last year, we won a lot. I’m not quite sure we were stressed as much as we’ve been this year. I think in that stress, you grow.”
A lack of experience together shouldn’t matter as much in a series against a Clippers team that’s missing Paul George and has had even less time together with its current rotation. But hopefully this first-round series serves as a launch point for the Suns’ familiarity with each other.
“I think once we get on the court, basketball is basketball at the end of the day,” Durant said. “We’ve been playing this game since we was kids, so we’ll figure it out.”
We’ve already seen plenty of evidence of how Double Drag opens up 3s on the weakside. When defenses have to worry about CP3 coming off staggered screens, Booker or Durant popping out for 3, and Ayton rolling, there’s a good chance at least one help defender will be pulled away from the corners.
This is where the Suns could prove to be vulnerable…or absolutely obliterate opposing defenses for daring the “other guys” beat them. The corner 3-point numbers look favorable for the most part, but they also come with a few question marks:
“The ability to swing the ball and have a ‘let it fly,’ catch-shot mentality with confidence is key,” William said. “So for our guys, we understand that some of those shots are gonna be a bit different, just because it’s the playoffs. The close-out that you’re gonna see is gonna be a little bit different than it was in the regular season, but we don’t want that to change our mentality.”
The biggest names that come to mind are Okogie and Craig, two players who have already logged significant minutes with Phoenix’s core four. Craig has been a spotty shooter throughout his NBA career, while Okogie failed to crack 30 percent shooting from long range in each of his first four seasons.
With the Suns, they’re both enjoying career years. Craig is at a career-high 39.5 percent, and while the bar is slightly lower for Okogie, who’s at 33.5 percent this season, he’s looked substantially more confident — and efficient — since the calendar flipped to 2023.
In October through December, Okogie made a putrid 24 percent of his triples. In January through February, he caught fire, canning 42.4 percent of his 3.3 attempts per game from distance. The confidence of that “let it fly” mentality and the freedom of more playing time empowered Okogie in a way no one had seen from him before.
Josh Okogie mentioned playing freely, so I asked if that's part of his hot 3-point shooting over the last month or so. Here's what he said:
"I used to get down on myself after missing some, and coach would just tell me, 'I don't care if you miss 8 in a row. Shoot the next one.'" pic.twitter.com/gLcQaCpdLw
— Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) February 17, 2023
Unfortunately, it hasn’t lasted. Since the start of March, he’s dipped back down to 32.1 percent from deep, while upping his volume to 4.1 attempts per game. It’s clear defenses are more willing to concede 3s from the least-threatening shooter of a loaded starting five.
That’s where Williams’ approach — and his players’ confidence in those situations — will be tested. Will a few misses in key playoff moments deter guys from taking those shots moving forward? A corner 3 has been a reliable staple of this Suns offense, but if the well runs dry and costs Phoenix a game, those role players have to push through self-doubt and keep shooting.
Williams said it’s the reason they run such intense practices, film sessions and walkthroughs to try and replicate that pressure for the other guys.
“The main guys, the guys who do it every night, they understand it,” Williams explained. “But if you can have guys on the second side who understand how important that close-out is or what to do in that close-out situation or having the confidence to take that shot no matter what, I think that serves you well.”
That extends beyond Okogie and Craig. Before the Suns had a healthy KD in the lineup, defenses clogged the paint on Paul and Ayton’s pick-and-rolls, closing driving lanes for Booker and bogging down Phoenix’s offense. It was a preview of what might be coming in the playoffs, though Durant clearly alleviates some of those concerns.
“They’re giving Josh and Torrey wide open shots, and we’re just giving those guys the confidence every time,” Booker said. “Like, ‘Keep shooting it. You guys practice on it. We know what teams are gonna do, so just keep doing that.’”
The Suns can deploy a number of 3-point threats to play alongside their core four. Those guys are inevitably going to get open shots, but who will be able to knock them down? The results on “wide open” 3s are encouraging:
If the Suns need defense and Okogie and Craig aren’t capitalizing, Wainright may get the call. He’ll have to be more reliable than he’s been lately; since the start of the new year, Wainright is shooting just 30.7 percent from deep overall, down significantly from the 39.1 percent he posted in the season’s first three months.
Shamet is another obvious option who can hold his own on defense. Since returning from injury 10 games ago, Shamet has made 37.8 percent of his 3s — right on par with his averages for the season.
If the Suns choose to fully lean into offense, Ross is the primary choice. He hasn’t been quite as good in 21 games with the Suns, shooting just 34.7 percent from 3 and only 34.6 percent on “wide-open” 3s. Lee could be another alternative, since he shot a career-high 44.5 percent from downtown this season, but he’s been buried on the bench behind Okogie, Craig, Ross and Shamet lately.
No matter which players get the nod when rotations shorten, it’s imperative they hit those open corner 3s to keep defenses honest and provide spacing — especially for Ayton, who can still be a playoff X-factor despite a reduced role.
“It’s very important for guys to be ready to shoot the ball and make a play, because we’re relying on them to where they got the last few seconds of that shot clock where the ball is moving around,” Ayton said. “We gotta do our thing and just be a hooper and just hoop. Shoot the ball and do what you gotta do to make a play for your teammate.”
Last year, the Suns learned the hard way how important it is to be able to sit down and guard your man. The Dallas Mavericks tore them to shreds with one-on-one penetration from Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson, which led to buckets in the paint and kick-outs for open 3s.
The Clippers don’t have as much talent as Phoenix, but their iso-heavy attack and emphasis on corner 3s presents similar challenges.
“At this point in the season, everybody knows your plays, they know some of your counters, and it comes down to the ability to stay in front of the ball, contest without fouling, and you gotta finish it with a rebound,” Williams said. “So we’ve talked about all that stuff and different ways we can cut down on certain tendencies, but for the most part, that’s what it is. You gotta stay in front of the ball and play great defense.”
At the forefront of that challenge is a 37-year-old Chris Paul, who will turn 38 next month. The Mavs were relentless at targeting him on switches last year, and the return of that approach feels inevitable, whether it’s in this series or the next.
In Paul’s defense, nobody on the Suns could stay in front of Doncic in last year’s second-round catastrophe. But in the playoffs, when mismatches are king, the Suns will have to find a way to avoid too many of those scenarios where a 6-foot-1 CP3 is getting exploited.
To his credit, Paul still has some of the sharpest, quickest hands in the league on defense. What he lacks in size or speed, he often makes up for with sheer cunning and determination. He’ll out-fox opponents by reading passing lanes, knock the ball away from behind, catch ball-handlers unaware by appearing out of thin air, or even play pressure, man-to-man defense to pick on less confident dribblers.
And if he turns the ball over, there’s about a 50 percent chance he’s about to get it back. Paul is like a cat deciding he’s done watching a ball of yarn dangle in front of his face, attacking it with a ferocious yank that’s almost laugh-out-loud funny:
Unfortunately, defense comes down to a lot more than delectable pickpocketing. The Suns are hoping that Paul’s adjustment as more of an off-ball shooter will help him conserve precious energy so he can be more of an obstacle on defense. After all, his current and former coaches are aware of how tiring it is to constantly bring the ball up the court.
“Probably at this point in his career, it’s probably good for him,” Doc Rivers said. “I mean, he’s still as smart as they come with the ball, and that’s where he makes his hay. But bringing the ball up the floor every possession all year is taxing. It’s exhausting and people are pressuring him, so putting him off the ball is probably a pretty smart thing at times.”
We’ve already touched on this in our five keys to the Clippers series and at length before that, so we’ll be brief: The Suns rank 27th in free-throw attempts, 27th in free-throw rate and 30th in opponent free-throw rate. That’s not great!
This issue will immediately be put to the test in the first round, since the Clippers rank 11th in free-throw attempts, 11th in free-throw rate and sixth in opponent free-throw rate. LA may not have the horses to spin that advantage into a competitive series, but the Suns’ shot profile just doesn’t generate the fouls they want, especially when playoff basketball gets more physical.
Over the last three seasons, the Suns have ranked 28th, 29th and 29th in free-throw attempts. Correlation is not causation, but it’s worth noting that the Suns have also ranked dead last in field goal attempts from the restricted area in all three of those seasons.
To their credit, the Suns led the league in paint touches, according to NBA.com, but as Cleaning The Glass denotes, they rank dead last in frequency of shots at the rim. The problem is they like to pull up from that short midrange area, ranking first in frequency of shots from 4-14 feet away from the basket.
All of these problems led to the Suns being out-shot by a whopping 320 attempts from the foul line this season. The only team with a worse differential was the Golden State Warriors (-412).
A lot of great teams encounter this problem at some point, but as we saw multiple times during the Suns’ eight games with Durant, this group is capable of storming out to big leads…and more than capable of letting them slip away.
“If I’m being honest, I just feel like we relax,” Craig said bluntly. “I feel like we get a big lead and just think sometimes teams might just lay down because of the guys we have. But it’s the NBA, man. Teams just make runs, so you just gotta be aware of that. I think it’s an easy solution. I just think we have to be aware and cautious when we have the lead to kind of put it on teams’ throat and finish the game out.”
Against the Hornets, the Suns led by 19 early in the third quarter, but Charlotte used a 30-17 run to pull within six heading into the fourth. Against Chicago, the Suns were up 13 in the second quarter before the Bulls closed the first half on a 27-10 run to reclaim the lead.
The Suns’ game against the Timberwolves was tight throughout, but a three-point lead late in the second quarter evaporated when Minnesota closed the half on a 12-6 run and then opened the third quarter on a 9-2 run, making it a 21-8 spurt overall.
Against the Nuggets, it was a 27-point lead in the third quarter before Denver’s bench whittled it down to four points late in the fourth. The Thunder turned a 15-point third-quarter deficit against Phoenix into a four-point game midway through the fourth quarter, the tanking Spurs chopped a 31-point deficit down to single digits in one quarter, and again the Nuggets’ C-squad challenged Phoenix, turning manageable leads into quick deficits.
The Suns won every single one of those games by finishing strong in the fourth, but it was impossible to ignore the third-quarter lulls and how complacent they got with a lead.
“We’re grateful for the win, but I thought we would build off of what we did in the first half,” Williams said after the first Nuggets game. “Our mindset just wasn’t where it needed to be, and that’s what I told the guys. We’re grateful for the wins, but we don’t have enough games to come out in the third quarter and play that way.”
Williams often talks about the Suns’ scale for effort and focus needing to be in the 7-10 range, rather than 1-10. But Booker, Durant and everyone else in the locker room has admitted to complacency when those leads swell. They’ve gotten away with it against inferior competition, but it’s not a mistake they can afford to make against better teams.
“It’s about how we respond, and going forward now, this can’t be a trend,” Durant said. “So we’ve seen it two games [in a row], and I think we’ll correct it and get through it.”
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