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Finishing their season with a 36-46 record, and needing two consecutive wins in the play-in tournament to make the playoffs, the New Orleans Pelicans feel like a typical 8-seed on paper. Unfortunately for the Phoenix Suns, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
For starters, this is a team that started 1-12 under first-year head coach Willie Green before righting the ship. Despite dealing with injuries and plenty of roster turnover, the Pelicans are 37-34 since then, with a top-10 Net Rating. Adding CJ McCollum to this young group has proven to be a difference-maker, as has Brandon Ingram getting healthy.
Most coaches know what their opponents run at this point, but Green, a former Suns assistant under coach Monty Williams, has an intimate familiarity with Phoenix’s personnel and 0.5 offense. Throw in the Pelicans’ general profile as a top rebounding team that turns opponents over and gets to the foul line, and you’ve got an uncommon 8-seed that will test the Suns’ biggest Achilles heels right off the bat.
That doesn’t mean Phoenix should be on upset alert; as we’ve already covered, the prediction here still feels like “Suns in 5,” if not “Suns in 4.” However, in the interest of being thorough, it’s worth taking a look at where New Orleans could challenge these title favorite in the first round, and where the Suns will need to shore a few things up to advance.
Let’s start with some daunting facts: Giving up too many offensive rebounds and second-chance points is the Suns’ biggest Achilles heel, and few teams are as well-suited to exploit that weakness as the Pelicans. With a back line that starts Jonas Valanciunas, Jaxson Hayes, Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram together, New Orleans can also trot out Larry Nance Jr. and Willy Hernangomez if need be.
It’s no wonder the Pelicans are fourth in offensive rebounding percentage, third in second-chance points (15.1 per game) and third in overall rebounding percentage. In their four regular-season meetings, New Orleans racked up a total of 58 offensive rebounds against the Suns — 10 more than any other team accounted for against Phoenix this season. Their offensive rebounding percentage against the Suns (35.7%) was the highest mark in the league outside of the Toronto Raptors (39.1%), and New Orleans out-rebounded Phoenix 189-155 overall in those contests.
“Their ability to come up with 50-50 balls and rebounds and what they did in the paint just kind of tipped the scale in their favor,” Williams said after the Suns’ February loss. “There were times where we got stops, we just couldn’t come up with the ball, or we’d tip the ball back to them and they came up with a 50-50.”
The Suns aren’t as hapless at keeping opponents off the glass as one would think; in fact, they’re 13th in the league in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. The problem is, when they give up O-boards, their opponents usually score, with the Suns ranking 21st in opponent second-chance points (13.6 per game).
In their four meetings, the Suns surrendered:
That’s a total of 88 second-chance points in four games — the most recorded against Phoenix this season, with the next-closest team at 70.
The scapegoat is usually Deandre Ayton when that sort of thing happens, and true enough, he’ll have to be better on the glass against Valanciunas in this series. He’s admitted at various points throughout the season that he needs to be better on the boards, and JV ran roughshod over the Suns this year, averaging 20.8 points and 14.8 rebounds per game. Ayton came in at 19.0 points, but only 5.0 rebounds a night.
However, Ayton missed two of those four matchups, and looking back at the film, many of the Pelicans’ offensive boards — even when he played — weren’t his fault. Sure, there were a few instances where DA needed to be stronger, more alert or simply better at securing the stop with a defensive board:
But by and large, Valanciunas proved to be a problem when Ayton was out of the game or not in the vicinity. Some of these are sneaky shoves in the back, but the man is a 6-foot-11, 265-pound load, and he routinely showed it against JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo.
Whenever DA found himself switched on the perimeter, the rotating Mikal Bridges or Devin Booker had a nightmarish time handling that kind of brute strength:
It wasn’t just Valanciunas’ 3.3 offensive rebounds per game that hurt the Suns in their meetings, though. Hayes and Jones frequently found success crashing the glass, and frankly put, wings like Bridges, Cam Johnson and the guards in general have to be better about putting bodies on the Pelicans’ lanky wings crashing from the perimeter.
There are way too many instances of ball-watching here:
“We’re No. 1 in the NBA in first-shot defense, and we’re forcing a lot of stops, but they had 13 offensive rebounds,” Williams said after the team’s March win. “In the third [quarter], it was an effort to hit bodies, and once we got the ball, we were able to get out, and that was a +5 quarter for us, but it was predicated on forcing the first miss, and then we had a lot of bodies on bodies so we could get the ball and take off.”
One of the easiest ways for an inferior opponent to hang around and mitigate the effects of a stifling defense is by creating extra opportunities on offense. The Suns have talked a lot about shoring up on the defensive boards. New Orleans represents one of their biggest challenges in doing so, right out of the gate.
Monty Williams faces an important defensive question: Is it better to unleash his Defensive Player of the Year candidate on CJ McCollum or Brandon Ingram?
“They have two guys that can put it down and get their own,” Williams explained in February after the Pelicans added McCollum. “They were a high-pass team before the trade, now they’re playing more iso-centric ball. Doesn’t mean they don’t move it, but they have two guys that can get their own shot. CJ’s scored the ball for a long time, and he’s given them a different option. So you have to have multiple wing defenders on the floor. You used to be able to key on Ingram more, now you have two guys that can get it done.”
Put Mikal Bridges on McCollum, and suddenly the rest of the starting lineup is giving up size across the board, with Devin Booker likely taking Ingram, Jae Crowder taking Jaxson Hayes and the Suns trying to hide Chris Paul on Herb Jones. Switch Bridges to Ingram to match length with length, and that leaves either Booker or a 36-year-old CP3 to try and stick with the shifty McCollum.
The answer is probably the former rather than the latter. McCollum is averaging what would be a career-high 24.3 points, 5.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds a night on .493/.394/.667 shooting splits since joining New Orleans, and in two games against the Suns on his new team, he put up 26.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game on 20-of-35 shooting (57.1%) and 5-of-12 shooting from deep (41.7%).
He fared considerably worse against Bridges, who held him to 16 points on 5-of-12 shooting over their four overall meetings this season (two with the Portland Trail Blazers), per NBA.com. He’s probably the best option to cut the head off this first snake.
In their first meeting with McCollum as a Pelican, Phoenix didn’t mind switching Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder or Torrey Craig onto him, and CJ dropped 32 points. In their next matchup, the Suns were a little more deliberate about keeping Bridges or Craig draped over him. That will probably be the case again in a playoff setting.
The question then becomes how well Booker can handle that kind of two-way assignment on Ingram. Longer wings who can create their own shot like him and Paul George have given the Suns trouble in the past, and the onus would be on Book to prove he’s worthy of that All-Defensive team consideration he and Williams keep talking about.
In two meetings with the Suns, Ingram averaged 22.0 points, 6.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game on 40% shooting, but he found some success with Bridges matched up on him, scoring 18 points in 11 minutes while going 8-for-16 from the field. Booker spent a very limited 3 minutes guarding Ingram, but he did well, holding him to 2 points on 1-of-6 shooting. Having Crowder, Johnson and Craig to throw at Ingram certainly helps too.
In New Orleans’ first play-in game, it was McCollum’s 32-7-6 stat line on 12-of-23 shooting that led the way. In their next win, Ingram’s 30-6-6 performance on 14-of-21 shooting carried the load. The Pelicans aren’t exactly a hydra when it comes to shot creation, but cutting the heads off those two snakes is important.
Over their last final games, the Suns were out-shot 183-85 at the free-throw line. On the season, they were out-shot by 226 free throws, ranking 29th in free-throw rate and 22nd in opponent free-throw rate.
Once again, New Orleans represents the exact type of team that can exploit this problem area. The Pelicans are sixth in free-throw rate (0.264), and that number shot up in four meetings with the Suns this year (0.320). In those matchups, they averaged 28.3 attempts per game, taking 113 freebies to the Suns’ 77.
Deandre Ayton said getting beat on the boards and with 50-50 balls tied into their foul problems during the February loss.
“A lot of fouling,” Ayton said. “We’re not gonna put it on the refs or whatnot with a bad whistle, but it’s just cutter awareness. I know we was ball-watching a little bit. Them dudes got us on the O-boards in some moments when we were trying to make a run, or we was getting stops but it was just the 50-50 balls, or they’re running two [7-]footers and they got a little bit of an advantage down there a few times. So it gave them momentum.”
The foul issue is something the Suns have struggled with all season. As an elite midrange team, sometimes their inability to put pressure on the rim hurts them in this respect. Sometimes they’re not aggressive enough, and sometimes they simply don’t get the benefit of the doubt.
“It’s a tough one, because the explanations are always what you don’t want to hear,” Williams said. “And I’ve just learned to not give it too much of my time. I want to fight for the guys, and help the officials recognize where we may feel like we’re being fouled or where we feel like we’re not fouling. But it’s a moving target, if you will. From game to game, it can be different. And I’m not into blaming the officials. There are times where there’s certain calls that I feel like could change the game, that kind of thing, but I think that happens in every game.”
Against a team that will crash the boards hard and play physical with its size advantage, keeping the Pelicans off the foul line will be key.
The Pelicans do not rate as an elite defense, but they’re pretty adept at turning mistakes into points. Not only do they rank seventh in steals, but they’re also ninth in points off turnovers and sixth in fast-break points.
During the regular season, the Suns committed 53 turnovers in four games against the Pels. They only turned it over more against the Golden State Warriors (56), Oklahoma City Thunder (56), Portland Trail Blazers (55) and Sacramento Kings (55) this year.
New Orleans also recorded the most steals against Phoenix of any team in the NBA (41), tying for the fourth-most blocks (17) as well as the most points off turnovers (70) and fast-break points (62).
In short, this group has done an effective job at turning over one of the least turnover-prone offenses in the NBA and capitalizing whenever they could.
However, we should point out that Chris Paul missed two of those games, and one of those turnover-heavy nights came without him and Cam Payne, when Point Book was the only alternative. Willie Green can throw all those traps at Booker as he likes; the Suns have learned from those experiences without the Point God, and with Paul back on the floor, Phoenix would be sure to make him pay for it.
If everything up to this point has felt negative, here’s the redeeming bright spot: The only team that can beat the Phoenix Suns in this series is the Phoenix Suns themselves. Green knows their system well, McCollum and Ingram are great players, Valanciunas is a lot to handle, and the offensive boards will be an issue.
And yet, it would still take nothing short of a miracle for the Pelicans to seriously challenge this Suns juggernaut.
It’s hard to glean too much from Phoenix’s 3-1 series win over New Orleans during the season; McCollum, Ingram, CP3 and Ayton only played in two of those games, and Crowder and Payne missed one as well.
What we do know, however, is the Pelicans had no answer for Booker, who averaged a 27-5-5 stat line on .466/.383/.868 shooting splits against this team. Herb Jones, who’s a legitimate All-Defensive team candidate, didn’t spend as much time on him, but Booker instinctively has big games on the road in New Orleans:
We know they similarly had no solution for Paul, who picked their blitzes apart with 33 assists in two games.
I mean, good luck trying to stop the Point God when he’s operating at such an ethereal level:
And we know Bridges was a constant thorn in their side, putting up 20+ points in three of their four meetings on 53.4% shooting. Throw in Ayton’s knack for rising to meet any challenge when it comes to facing prominent big men, and all the Suns really have to do is play their brand of basketball to take care of business.
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